The Risks of Quantum Supremacy

By Daniel Maresca, University of Chicago

Quantum computing—a revolutionary technology positioned to benefit society through streamlined problem-solving, advanced simulations, and innovations in fields like healthcare and materials science—presents more risks than benefits when examined from a national security perspective.^[1] The unparalleled capabilities threaten the dismantling of existing encryption methods, leaving many informational and defense networks vulnerable to exploitation. The global race for quantum technology will be more impactful than the space race. Adversaries like China and Russia are investing heavily in quantum research for global dominance, including billions of dollars towards Chinese quantum radar systems and quantum technology for military purposes in Russia.^[2] If these advancements are achieved by foreign powers, it could destabilize U.S. information systems and render existing cryptographic technologies obsolete. Without decisive action to implement safeguards against quantum attacks, the risks posed by quantum computing outweigh its potential advantages.  

At their core, traditional computers encode information in a binary system with a long sequence of zeros and ones, with each zero or one known as a “bit”.^[3] This encoding method creates problems because computers can only process a set number of zeros and ones. Unlike traditional bits, quantum computers use “qubits”, which sidestep the limitations of traditional computers through superposition—qubits can exist simultaneously as a zero and a one. Quantum computers encoding information in qubits would allow them to perform calculations exponentially faster, solving more complex tasks. 

One of the most impactful implications of quantum computing is its ability to break through traditional cryptographic methods, which are ways of encrypting information. In 1994, a godfather of quantum technologies, Peter Shor, designed an algorithm demonstrating quantum computers’ capabilities to crack classical encryption methods to secure state secrets far faster than traditional computers.^[4] Shor’s algorithm began a race between governments who were pouring billions into research to develop quantum superiority. In 2011, Lockheed Martin bought the first commercially available quantum computer, and since then, the U.S. government, along with private American firms, have together spent more than $6 billion on the sector.^[5]  

Due to the implications of quantum computing being able to break through traditional cryptographic methods, it poses significant risks to the banking industry and defense infrastructure.^[6] Standard encryption methods that safeguard classified transactions and communications could be obsolete, allowing foreign adversaries to break into information once thought to be secure. To remedy these risks, IBM has created a quantum-safe technology stack for its latest mainframes, which store much of the world’s transaction data.^[7] 

The dangers for the future of secure information are now becoming publicly recognized. As of August 13, 2024, The Secretary of Commerce approved the Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) for post-quantum cryptography.^[8] These are three algorithms designed to be digital signature schemes that are resistant to future attacks by quantum computers. 

In May 2022, the White House issued a National Security Memorandum that outlined a comprehensive approach to addressing quantum computing and how it threatens cybersecurity.^[9] The memorandum tasked federal agencies to identify the vulnerabilities within their cryptographic systems and how they need to transition critical infrastructure to quantum-resistant encryption standards by 2035; however, this may be too far of a timeline because the race for quantum computers is continuously raging.^[10] The bureaucracy built into the U.S. Government by design may be a limiting factor in transitioning to successful defense methods against quantum attacks. Acknowledging this and maintaining a competitive edge, the directive also prioritizes investments in quantum research and development. A partnership between the governments, academia, and the private sector. The memorandum finished by formally highlighting the risk of foreign adversaries exploiting these quantum technologies to undermine U.S. infrastructure. 

In the defense sector, quantum computing can be transformative in military logistics and defense through advanced simulations and its acceleration in R&D.^[11] Through their qubits, quantum computers can process vast datasets to solve optimization problems at unprecedented speeds. They could enhance troop deployment strategies, optimize supply chain logistics, and improve battlefield decision-making through the evolution of artificial intelligence weapons. For instance, these computers could run billions of complex battlefield simulations, predicting outcomes with greater precision to support mission planning. 

 Quantum computers could also design new materials for military equipment along with next-gen sensors for better surveillance.^[12] If the U.S. military is able to hone these capabilities before another country, it will give them a critical edge in maintaining technological superiority around the world.  

The U.S. is not the only country improving its quantum technology capabilities. Adversaries of the U.S., such as China and Russia, are heavily investing in quantum advancements to gain a strategic edge.^[13] Code-breaking and detection technology could give these foreign nations an advantage in intelligence and military operations if they develop the technology before the United States. At the moment, the U.S. has the best stealth technology in military combat. However, breakthroughs in quantum radar could render it obsolete.^[14]  

Despite the efforts of the United States to combat quantum attacks through quantum-resistant standards and the National Security Memorandum, the timeline for action may not be reactive enough to foreign adversaries. If the U.S. is not decisive in its reaction, the risks of quantum computing will outweigh its benefits. This would ultimately leave the U.S. vulnerable to an increasingly competitive global landscape.

[1]Noah Berman, “What Is Quantum Computing?,” Council on Foreign Relations, October 7, 2024, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-quantum-computing.

[2]“The Realist’s Guide to Quantum Technology and National Security,” Deloitte Insights, February 6, 2020, https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/public-sector/the-impact-of-quantum-technology-on-national-security.html.

[3]Council on Foreign Relations “What is Quantum Computing?”

[4] Ibid

[5] Ibid

[6] Steven Rosenbush, “‘Q Day’ Is Coming. It’s Time to Worry about Quantum Security.,” The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/articles/q-day-is-coming-its-time-to-worry-about-quantum-security-ca88c576.

[7]Wall Street Journal “Q Day’ Is Coming. It’s Time to Worry about Quantum Security.”

[8]Information Technology Laboratory Computer Security Division, “Post-Quantum Cryptography FIPS Approved,” CSRC, August 13, 2024, https://csrc.nist.gov/News/2024/postquantum-cryptography-fips-approved.

[9] 1. “National Security Memorandum on Promoting United States Leadership in Quantum Computing While Mitigating Risks to Vulnerable Cryptographic Systems,” The White House, May 4, 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/04/national-security-memorandum-on-promoting-united-states-leadership-in-quantum-computing-while-mitigating-risks-to-vulnerable-cryptographic-systems/.

[10]Ibid

[11]Lindsay Rand, “Quantum Technology: A Primer on National ...,” University of Maryland, July 18, 2022, https://cgsr.llnl.gov/sites/cgsr/files/2024-08/Quantum-Primer_CGSR_LR_Jul18.pdf.

[12]University of Maryland “Quantum Technology: A Primer on National Security and Policy Implications”

[13]Deloitte Insights “The Realist’s Guide to Quantum Technology and National Security”

[14]Deloitte Insights “The Realist’s Guide to Quantum Technology and National Security”